800
FXUS63 KDDC 100505
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL EVENT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER.
- WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
- DESPITE A FEW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES NEXT WEEK, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH
NOW EJECTING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST KDDC RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING NEAR THE
US-283 CORRIDOR, AND GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD, WITH SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. AS THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THE
UPPER WAVE WILL OPEN, WHICH WILL WEAKEN FRONTOGENESIS/FORCING
AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION RATES TO DECREASE. AS A RESULT, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ONCE
SNOWFALL FINALLY EXITS OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH 4-7"
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER DIMINISHING TO 1-2" OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES. OVERNIGHT, FRESH SNOWPACK AND MODEST WINDS AROUND 5-10
MPH WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOWFALL EVENT, ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGING TO THE
WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE EAST THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WHILE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL DIVE SOUTH ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH ON A FEW OCCASIONS DURING NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
RIDGING OUT WEST WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING FROM THE 40S ON
SATURDAY TO THE 50S ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. SIMILARLY, PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS ARE QUIET (<15%) THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CLEARING SKIES WERE DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME (05Z).
BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS CLEARING TREND WITH WHAT VFR
CEILINGS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY 090Z AS A SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 12Z. THESE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY 18Z TODAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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