129
FXUS63 KDDC 101644
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1044 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES TODAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING 50S BY TUESDAY.
- DESPITE A FEW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES NEXT WEEK, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS, AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WERE
OCCURRING. BEHIND THE TROUGH, RAPID CLEARING WAS OBSERVED, WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO DROP ALREADY INTO THE TEENS IN SOME
AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD START FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN YESTERDAYS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE 20S INTO THE 30S TODAY GIVEN
A DAY OF FULL SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT
NBM GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW YESTERDAY. AS
A RESULT WE WILL BE TRENDING HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO THE COOLER
25TH PERCENTILE. THIS MEANS A FEW AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
MUCH HIGHER THAN 35 DEGREES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS AT TIMES IN THE LOWER 20S.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WARMUP, THE LINGERING SNOW
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE SNOWPACK. WHILE MONDAY
WILL BE WARMER, HIGHS HOWEVER MAY STILL BE 5 DEGREES OR MORE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE, MAINLY WHERE DEEPER SNOW COVER STILL
EXISTS.
MIDWEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS NOT VERY HIGH, 20% OF THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS, A COLD FRONT AND THEN A
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS SW KANSAS IS FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT (<15 KTS) AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AROUND 6Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIGHTEN TO AROUND 6 KTS AND SHIFT MORE FROM THE NORTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...KBJ
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