741
FXUS63 KDDC 110942
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE SNOW COVER WILL
DELAY THE WARMING FOR SOME.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
OVER THE COMING DAYS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REVERT BACK
TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN, EXPECT SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO BE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY COLD SURGES, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR
STAYING WELL NORTH AND EAST. ANY COLD SURGES WILL BE VERY BRIEF,
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST STARTING TODAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS PERSIST.
LOCATIONS WITH A BARE GROUND (HAYS AND MEDICINE LODGE) WILL
EASILY WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY, WITH COOLER 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER (ULYSSES FOR
EXAMPLE) WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE SNOW, WITH 80-95% OF SUNLIGHT
REFLECTED INSTEAD OF ABSORBED BY THE EARTH'S SURFACE. IN PLACES
LIKE MEDICINE LODGE AND HAYS WITH A BARE GROUND, DAYTIME SOLAR
ABSORPTION WILL BE MUCH HIGHER--HENCE WARMER AFTERNOON
READINGS.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY, WHICH IN THE ABSENCE OF
SNOW COVER AND MELTING WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN UPPER 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT
STILL HAVE REMNANT SNOW COVER AND A WET GROUND MAY ONLY REACH
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE MAY BE AN ISLAND OF
COOLER AIR SURROUNDED BY WARMER READINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN BETWEEN, EXPECT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE NEAR 0% FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN
DAYS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT ARE
DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 10-12 KTS OR LESS WILL PERSIST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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