209
FXUS63 KDDC 262237
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR MODIFIES WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD SURGE
FRIDAY, BUT AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS AT MIDDAY, WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY, AND A GREAT
VIEW OF SNOWCOVER ACROSS KANSAS. RETURN FLOW WAS QUITE ELEVATED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH AT MIDDAY. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
WERE CAUSING LIMITED BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL END
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS WEST
OF US 83 WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 30S, WITH SNOWCOVER
KEEPING OTHER ZONES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A CLEAR SKY AND THE SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS OF 10-15 RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER, BUT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO +5 TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS WELL
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
NOT BE ISSUED.
QUIET DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A WARMING TREND. OF COURSE, THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY
THE MELTING SNOWCOVER, BUT STILL, THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 FAR NORTHEAST ZONES, TO MID 40S NEAR
ELKHART, AT 4 PM TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY, AS HEIGHTS PEAK
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE +7 TO +9 RANGE. MUCH OF
THE REMAINING SNOWCOVER WILL MELT WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 40S, IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOWCOVER ON THE GROUND IS VERY FLUFFY AND HOLDS LITTLE WATER
CONTENT, SO IT SHOULD MELT/SUBLIMATE QUICKLY. WESTERN ZONES WITH
THE HELP OF GENTLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGHS
ABOVE 50 WEST OF US 83. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, BACK TO THE 30S THURSDAY.
A SECONDARY, STRONGER COLD AIR REINFORCEMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING
PER MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
STRONG ARCTIC INTRUSION, WITH A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1050 MB OVER
THE DAKOTAS MIDDAY FRIDAY, AND STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
THE LAST ONE, OR AT LEAST SW KS WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING
BLOW THIS TIME, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -10 TO -12C
DAYTIME FRIDAY. THAT SAID, NBM MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FRIDAY,
AND TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE DOWNWARD DAYLIGHT
FRIDAY PENDING FRONTAL TIMING. DID NOTICE THE LATEST NBM TRENDED
COLDER INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS FOR MUCH OF SW KS FRIDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH 12Z MEX
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S AT HAYS BOTH DAYS. THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES APPROACHING ZERO
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT A POST
FRONTAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND GENERATING LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW DURING
THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED GIVEN THE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY LAYER,
WITH NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL OVER 1 INCH CURRENTLY ONLY
20-25%. NBM PROBABILITY OF JUST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (>0.1 INCH)
IS AS HIGH AS 60% FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY, SO A
DUSTING APPEARS PROBABLE. NBM POPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY, FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES, CENTERED ON FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START OUT
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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