966
FXUS63 KDDC 271101
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
501 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK
- ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
09Z ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE FORECAST AREA IS IN BETWEEN WEATHER
FEATURES WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER-MIDWEST AND A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE AREA, THWARTING THE PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
LARGELY BE 35 DEGREES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH
PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE CHILLY, WITH TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR LESS. THE BIG WARM-UP
(COMPARATIVE TO RECENT TEMPERATURES) WILL COME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD, ALLOWING A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW INFLUENCE.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB +7-10C RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S (EASTERN ZONES) TO LOW/MID 50S (WESTERN ZONES).
AFTER THIS BRIEF WARM UP, ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL BE FARTHER WEST
AND COLDER ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS WELL THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE DEPICT THIS COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AIDED BY A NEAR 1050 MB SURFACE
HIGH ENTERING THE UPPER-MIDWEST. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED,
NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, MAINLY FOR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL LOW 20S IS EVEN TOO WARM. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MAX TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20F ARE 40-60%,
NOTABLY UP AROUND HAYS. COLDEST AIR OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST
CALLING FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND NEGATIVES, ALONG AND EAST OF
ROUTE 283. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
NEGATIVES ARE 30-50%, BUT SUSPECT THOSE CHANCES TO RISE IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. WITH THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MINUS 10S, WHICH
WOULD BE JUST AT OR NEAR COLD WEATHER CRITERIA, SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS COLD SHOT LOOKS RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVES HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BEGIN TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY APPRECIABLE POP
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW 20-40%, FAVORING NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, IT IS ANTICIPATED ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST
0.1" IS 40-70%, BUT 1" OR GREATEST IS MAXED AT ONLY 30% CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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