344
FXUS63 KDDC 271900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SNOWMELT
CONTINUING. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT; ANY AMOUNTS OR
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED BROKEN CIRRUS OVER
KANSAS, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING, EMBEDDED IN
THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER
KANSAS TODAY, WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE
AMOUNT OF WARM UP IS BEING RESTRICTED BY THIS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION, THE CIRRUS CANOPY, AND THE MELTING SNOWPACK. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RANGE IS PROJECTED AT 4 PM, FROM NEAR
30 AT HAYS TO NEAR 50 AT ELKHART.
CIRRUS WILL THIN TONIGHT, AND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RESIDUAL SNOWCOVER, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO EASILY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AGAIN.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY FORECASTING WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
MILDEST, MOST PLEASANT DAY OF THIS WEEK. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS RISE
NICELY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE +7 TO +8C
RANGE, IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MIXING WILL BE WEAK, BUT WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WILL
DELIVER A PLEASANT DAY FOR JANUARY STANDARDS, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHERE SNOWCOVER IS MINIMAL, AND 50S
WILL RETURN.
THE WARMING TREND WILL BE CUT SHORT QUICKLY, WITH THE NEXT DRY
SHORTWAVE FORCING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SW KS EARLY
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER, FASTER, AND COLDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH 12Z MAV HOLDING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS ON MAV/GFS GUIDANCE ARE ALSO
MUCH STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE, NEAR 20 MPH SUSTAINED.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THURSDAY'S FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER NORTH WINDS, BUT STILL DRY.
A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR IS PROGGED TO BACKDOOR ITS WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS KANSAS FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE SW KS WILL BE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS, SO WE WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST ARCTIC INVASION. STILL, EXPERIENCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF SW KS WILL BE STUCK IN
THE 20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY STILL SHOW A
NON-DIURNAL CURVE DOWNWARD DURING THE DAY, AS STRONG 1050 MB
ARCTIC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS SHOW
CONTINUITY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO
EASTERN ZONES, SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MINIMAL LIGHT SNOW OPPORTUNITIES
CENTERED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME WEAK POST-FRONTAL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEPICTED IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BOTH BY THE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY AND THE
DRY ARCTIC AIR. NBM CONTINUES WITH A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOW (>0.1 INCH) OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES, SO A
DUSTING REMAINS POSSIBLE. NBM POPS ARE QUITE LOW, FAVORING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR, FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED, IF ANY
AT ALL. ONE LIKELY OUTCOME IS SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES; THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
STRONG SWLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST SATURDAY, ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH. SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD IN RECYCLED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR, BEFORE A
RAPID WARMING TREND IS ENJOYED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC, VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page