785
FXUS63 KDDC 281128
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH MORE MILDER TODAY; WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
- FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
- WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY-
SATURDAY
- SNOW CHANCES AND IMPACT CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL FOR FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST, RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, AND ANOTHER TROUGH
ENTERING THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGES OF A COUPLE OF FEATURES. AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN U.S. WILL FLATTEN
OUT THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST. WITH THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKIES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO +7 TO +9C,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR EVERYONE, WITH LOW
TO MID 50S IN WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WORKWEEK. INTO TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A PERIOD
OF FREEZING FOG IS BEING INDICATED ON SOME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE LIKE THE HREF AND REFS. PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES, MAINLY WEST OF ROUTE 283, BUT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD, ARCTIC AIR INTRUDES BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES. PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 30 DEGREES ARE 50-70% ON THE
NBM IN PLACES LIKE HAYS DOWN TO LA CROSSE, LARNED, AND STAFFORD.
A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN CHILLY AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
SIMILARLY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S IN
EASTERN ZONES, BUT MORE MILD AIR TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE STRETCH. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEGATIVES IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVES FOR NEARLY
EVERYONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AS LOW AS -5 TO -15 IN
THOSE NORTHEAST AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING OR
EXCEEDING COLD WEATHER CRITERIA, SO CONSIDERATIONS FOR HEADLINES
TO HIGHLIGHT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS WE GET
A BIT CLOSER TO THAT TIMEFRAME.
FINALLY, SNOW REMAINS IN CHANCE CATEGORIES FOR FRIDAY. THE SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT, WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL GIVEN
LACK OF MOISTURE. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION OF >0.1", WITH A FOCUS IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1" HAVE COME DOWN SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING'S NBM DATA TO 20% CHANCE OR LESS, FURTHER
INDICATING THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE AND LIMITED IMPACT FROM
THE SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS,
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE AGAIN TURNING OUT OF THE
NORTH INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ONLY ADVERSE WEATHER WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW, BUT SOME ELEVATED
CHANCES OF 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY IS APPARENT, MAINLY AFTER 07Z
THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED BR INTO THE DDC AND HYS TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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