909
FXUS63 KDDC 290535
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
- COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTH
WINDS, A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
- A SECONDARY, STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO, ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
- DRY WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED SCATTERED CIRRUS OVER
KANSAS, AS A TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST PLEASANT OF THIS WEEK, AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE +7 TO +8C RANGE ALONG WITH A
LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND. MUCH OF THE SNOWCOVER WILL MELT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, WITH A
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 FAR EAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CURRENTLY WILL ARRIVE IN
SW KS ABOUT SUNRISE THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NEAR ELKHART AT MIDNIGHT TO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AT 6 AM THURSDAY, ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO RACE
THROUGH SW KS LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, BUT THE ELEVATED NORTH
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
MORNING. CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS SEVERAL HOURS
OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING, FAVORING THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST ZONES. THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
THIS STRATUS DECK, WITH 12Z NAM DISPLAYING ITS CLASSIC LIGHT
DRIZZLE QPF SIGNATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING. ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS, ADDED SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE WEATHER GRIDS, BUT AMOUNTS/IMPACTS APPEAR
MINIMAL.
ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR THURSDAY,
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. DESPITE CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TO NEAR
FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF US-283. ZONES ADJACENT TO COLORADO
WILL BE MUCH MILDER IN THE 40S.
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE. A STRONGER SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BACKDOOR WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SW KS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT'S TIME OF ARRIVAL, BUT THE EXACT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DICTATE EXACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
THINKING IS TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE DOWNWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY. SUSPECT MODELS ARE
A LITTLE SLOW ON THE ARCTIC FRONT'S ARRIVAL, GIVEN SUCH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING JUST BEHIND THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. QPF
OUTPUT IS MINIMAL, IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE BEING VERY LIMITED.
FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW (> 0.1
INCH/DUSTING) HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AT 40-60% FOR MUCH OF
SW KS CENTERED ON FRIDAY EVENING AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.
NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOW > 1 INCH IS MUCH LOWER, ONLY NEAR 20%,
AND THAT IS CONFINED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. NBM GUIDANCE IS
SIMILAR, WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR (TREGO, ELLIS)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN TRAJECTORY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS SCANT, AND IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY AT
ALL.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING THE STRONG
1048 MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. NBM IS TRENDING COLDER IN THIS REGARD,
WITH SINGLE DIGIT AIR TEMPERATURES COMMON, AND SUBZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES FAVORING THE NORTHEAST ZONES NEAREST THE ARCTIC
HIGH. WINDS WILL THANKFULLY BE LIGHT, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL
APPROACH -15 NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED. AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 ARE LIKELY UNDER THE
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG RETURN
FLOW AND S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLY COLD, STUCK IN THE 20S AND 30S IN THE RECIRCULATED
POLAR AIR.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY REGARDING A RAPID
WARMUP THROUGH THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THAT WILL MELT ANY
REMAINING SNOWCOVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BRINGING IFR OR LOWER CIGS
AND VIS PRIMARILY TO HYS AND DDC, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS TO GCK AND
LBL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS DURING THE 09-21Z TIME FRAME, FOLLOWED BY
RAPID WEAKENING BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page