638
FXUS63 KDDC 291115
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S EAST
TO THE LOW 50S WEST.
- LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-83.
- GENERALLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTING ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE FROM THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE EAST COAST, WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CO, DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SUBLETTE AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, AND IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY, RESULTING IN WINDS FLIPPING NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF THESE WINDS, EXACERBATED BY
MORNING CLOUD COVER MAINLY EAST OF US-83, WILL YIELD A MUCH
COOLER AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S FROM HAYS
TO PRATT TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. THURSDAY NIGHT,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, DRIVING FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
INTO THE TEENS EAST OF US-283 AND THE LOW 20S TO THE WEST.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND INCHES EASTWARD.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EQUATORWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, FOSTERING
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THIS ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300-MB
JET STREAK WILL ENGENDER LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES FAVORING AREAS EAST
OF US-83 AND NORTH OF US-50. THAT SAID, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST AS NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOW GREATER THAN OR EQUAL
TO 0.5" IS ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EAST TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER. FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA EAST OF US-83, ALONG WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THESE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL OUTSIDE OF HEADLINE CRITERIA, EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN SATURDAY MORNING TO LIMIT OUTSIDE
EXPOSURE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE QUICKLY DAMPENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AND REDEVELOPING FARTHER WEST. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL BE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
THEN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS WELL, SAVE
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER
THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.01" RISE INTO THE 30-50% RANGE AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. HOWEVER, QPF
PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DECLINE WITH INCREASING THRESHOLD, SO DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS, BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS TO DDC AND GCK.
THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF DARKNESS TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BEFORE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SUNSHINE HELPS MIX THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
FOG. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH 21Z, FOLLOWED BY RAPID
WEAKENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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