504
FXUS63 KDDC 291600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS.
- A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW KS.
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES, WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
COMMON. SUBZERO AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
- QUIET AND DRY WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE FROM THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE EAST COAST, WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CO, DIGGING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR SUBLETTE AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, AND IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TODAY, RESULTING IN WINDS FLIPPING NORTHERLY IN ITS
WAKE. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF THESE WINDS, EXACERBATED BY
MORNING CLOUD COVER MAINLY EAST OF US-83, WILL YIELD A MUCH
COOLER AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S FROM HAYS
TO PRATT TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. THURSDAY NIGHT,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, DRIVING FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
INTO THE TEENS EAST OF US-283 AND THE LOW 20S TO THE WEST.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND INCHES EASTWARD.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EQUATORWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, FOSTERING
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THIS ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300-MB
JET STREAK WILL ENGENDER LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES FAVORING AREAS EAST
OF US-83 AND NORTH OF US-50. THAT SAID, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST AS NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOW GREATER THAN OR EQUAL
TO 0.5" IS ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY WITH
A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EAST TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER. FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA EAST OF US-83, ALONG WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE THESE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL OUTSIDE OF HEADLINE CRITERIA, EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN SATURDAY MORNING TO LIMIT OUTSIDE
EXPOSURE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE QUICKLY DAMPENING EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AND REDEVELOPING FARTHER WEST. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL BE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP SUNDAY/MONDAY AND
THEN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AS WELL, SAVE
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER
THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.01" RISE INTO THE 30-50% RANGE AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. HOWEVER, QPF
PROBABILITIES RAPIDLY DECLINE WITH INCREASING THRESHOLD, SO DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY OUTLINES REMAINING IFR STRATUS FROM GCK TO LBL
AT 16Z THU, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
AFTER THIS, VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. TOWARD
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, AFTER 15Z FRI, IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO HYS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. ELEVATED
NORTH WINDS IN PROGRESS AT 16Z THU WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z FRI. AN INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AFTER
18Z FRI.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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