282
FXUS63 KDDC 292308
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS.
- A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW KS.
- SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES, WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
COMMON. SUBZERO AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- QUIET AND DRY WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE REMAINING STRATUS
DISSIPATING IN A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE. ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WERE SUPPLYING MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION, BUT NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING A TEMPERATURE RANGE OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES AT 4 PM,
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S AT HAYS TO MID 50S AT ELKHART.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS, INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS, AND STEADY/FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR
BACKDOORS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW KS. LATEST TIMING FROM THE
12Z NAM SHOWS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT A FASTER RATE
COMPARED TO SEVERAL OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS, AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE RISES. 12Z NAM SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT REACHING HAYS BY
NOON, THE US-83 CORRIDOR BY 3 PM FRIDAY, AND FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY 6 PM. TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY FRIDAY,
WITH EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ANY ONE LOCATION DEPENDENT ON
THIS FRONTAL TIMING. CERTAINLY, A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 20S
NORTHEAST TO 50S SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A NON-DIURNAL
CURVE DOWNWARD, SUCH AS AT DODGE CITY, WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ESTABLISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO KANSAS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FORECASTING A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SW KS FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME CAM SOLUTIONS SUCH AS 12Z ARW SHOW WIDESPREAD
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF FLUFFY DRY SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT BELIEVE THESE MORE ROBUST SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDONE.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE, WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED FLURRIES. GIVEN THE
NORTHERN TRAJECTORY AND DRY ARCTIC BOUNDARY LAYER, NBM HAS BEEN
CORRECTLY TRENDING TO THE DRIER SOLUTIONS, WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF EVEN A DUSTING (>0.1 INCH) REDUCED TO 20-40%. NBM POPS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED, IF ANY AT ALL.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING THE STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH CENTER (NEAR 1048 MB) OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SUNRISE
SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL OCCUR EAST OF DODGE CITY, WHERE THE SKY AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARS, AND WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST. SUBZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE ZONES, WITH LOW LYING AREAS
PERHAPS AS COLD AS -10. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED, ALTHOUGH WINDS NEAR THE HIGH WILL BE LIGHT. WFOS
WICHITA/NORMAN HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND CERTAINLY THE ADJACENT EASTERN ZONES WILL
BE THE COLDEST.
STRONG RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
(STRONGER THAN NBM) EXPECTED BEHIND THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH.
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY COLD IN THE RECIRCULATED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAPID WARMING TREND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD
ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITIY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 16-18Z
FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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