113
FXUS63 KDDC 300800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR EAST ZONES SATURDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 ARE POSSIBLE.
- GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS DAYTIME SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES ALL AREAS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE EAST COAST, WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE
EQUATORWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD, RESULTING
IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW, ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 300-MB JET STREAK, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES OVER OUR AREA, BEGINNING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A DUSTING AS
PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS ONLY
IN THE 20-40% RANGE, AND THOSE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO 10% OR
LESS BY THE 0.5" THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL YIELD A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S NORTHEAST INCREASING TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS MARCH ON SOUTH,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE OPTIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF US-283,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW
ZERO. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH THE
-5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS PER LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WILL FLIP TO SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH, THE
IMPACT OF THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DAMPEN DAYTIME SUNDAY AND
REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CREEP EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
WILL FAVOR GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A FEW COLD FRONTS THROUGH OUR
AREA, BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGES, WITH INSUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKES TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS TAF CYCLE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MVFR CIGS,
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES, WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS. HYS AND DDC WILL
RECOVER BACK TO VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT GCK AND LBL
WILL LINGER IN MVFR BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME, SUSTAINED IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS, BEFORE WEAKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 01-04Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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