845
FXUS63 KDDC 301600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SW KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- SOUTH WINDS RETURN SATURDAY, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- DRY WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES ALL AREAS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE EAST COAST, WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE
EQUATORWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCHES EASTWARD, RESULTING
IN STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW, ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 300-MB JET STREAK, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES OVER OUR AREA, BEGINNING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A DUSTING AS
PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.1" IS ONLY
IN THE 20-40% RANGE, AND THOSE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO 10% OR
LESS BY THE 0.5" THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL YIELD A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S NORTHEAST INCREASING TO THE LOW/MID 50S
SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS MARCH ON SOUTH,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE OPTIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF US-283,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW
ZERO. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH THE
-5 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE ITS
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS PER LATEST SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WILL FLIP TO SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH, THE
IMPACT OF THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DAMPEN DAYTIME SUNDAY AND
REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CREEP EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
WILL FAVOR GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND A FEW COLD FRONTS THROUGH OUR
AREA, BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGES, WITH INSUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKES TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW KS. NE WIND GUSTS OF 25-27 KTS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET, AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. WINDS WILL TREND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOUTH WINDS
RESUMING AT 10-20 KTS IN RETURN FLOW AFTER 15Z SAT. A PERIOD OF
MVFR TO PERHAPS AT TIMES IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT VFR IS FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 06Z SAT. LIMITED COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 21Z FRI - 03Z SAT, BUT DO NOT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY SNOW OR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
THIS SET OF TAFS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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