358
FXUS63 KDDC 302358
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SW KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO COMMON. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- SOUTH WINDS RETURN SATURDAY, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- DRY WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
BACKDOOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
KANSAS AT MIDDAY. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE RISES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING
DODGE CITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND REACHING ELKHART BY 6 PM.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING, GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. SEVERAL HOURS OF
LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. POST
FRONTAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO SHAKE OUT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. EVEN THIS LATE IN THE GAME, MODELS VARY WIDELY ON THEIR
QPF FIELDS, BUT ALL OF IT IS LIGHT, WITH MOISTURE LIMITED BY
NORTHERN TRAJECTORY AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, AS STRONG 1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES IN
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL VERY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT AIR TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
DODGE CITY TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAREST THE SURFACE HIGH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE ARCTIC AIR, ANY SLIGHT BREEZE
WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR -15, ESPECIALLY NEAR HAYS AND
THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RETREATING HIGH, BUT THIS WILL BE COLD RECIRCULATED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S
AND 30S MOST OF SATURDAY. SOME 40S ARE FORECAST WEST OF US-83.
THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL CERTAINLY BY SUNDAY, WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE, RAPID WARMING AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST, SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMMENCES, AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY REBOUND, TO NEAR +8C EAST, TO NEAR +12C
WEST. ANY REMAINING OLD SNOW COVER WILL RAPIDLY MELT SUNDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S, WITH LOWER 60S
ALONG/WEST OF US-83. NBM IS TRENDING WARMER, WITH LOWER 60S WEST
OF US-283 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS MIDLEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE ZONAL.
AFTER FEW CLOUDS SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS MONDAY, WITH
CONTINUED MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ABOUT TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND ELEVATED NORTH WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT IS WELL EAST OF
SW KS, PAR FOR THE COURSE DURING THE COLD SEASON. POST FRONTAL
AIR TUESDAY WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN, WITH ONLY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FORECASTING A REX BLOCK TO
ESTABLISH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RIDGING
COMPONENT OF THAT BLOCK SPREADING EAST ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY MILD PLEASANT
COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF WHILE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS BEGINNING TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 15KT WHILE TURNING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
GENERALLY AFTER 04-06Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE SATURDAY
MORNING IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TURNING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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