801
FXUS63 KDDC 311711
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, AS LOW AS
-15 DEGREES.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
I-70, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO CRATER, ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-283
AND NORTH OF US-50, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE OPTIMIZED.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE +5 TO -5 DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF US-283. DESPITE
LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS COULD STILL DIP AS LOW AS -15 AT TIMES,
AND THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN 2 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES WITHIN OUR AREA. AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE EQUATORWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ALLOWING WINDS TO FLIP TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EAST OF US-83 AND LITTLE TO NO
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO
THE MID 40S WEST. ALSO OF NOTE, A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR I-70 AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO
0.1" IS IN THE 20-30% RANGE, AND AS A RESULT, SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (15-24%) WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE GRIDS. SATURDAY NIGHT,
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN HOLDING MORNING LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S DESPITE CLEAR SKIES.
DAYTIME SUNDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DAMPEN AS IT CREEPS EASTWARD,
BUT STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPORT
DRAMATICALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
JUMPING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHILE AREAS FROM HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE STAY IN THE UPPER 50S. THIS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE
INTO A WARMER NIGHT AS MONDAY MORNING LOWS HOLD IN THE 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER WEST ABOVE THE
WEST COAST BEFORE RESUMING ITS SLOW EASTWARD CRAWL. THE OUTCOME
OF THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL BE LARGER QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SEND A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THROUGH OUR AREA, BUT WILL CARRY LITTLE FANFARE AND FAIL
TO DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT AFTER 00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE CREATING THE CLOUDS MOVES INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL (~20%) CHANCES OF SOME BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYS BETWEEN 18-21Z HOWEVER THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND STAY GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TATRO
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