054
FXUS63 KDDC 312012
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TO START THE WEEK
- COOLER AIR RETURNS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
- GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK...SMALL CHANCE (~10%) OF SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
20Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DIGGING TROUGH AND UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN INTENSIFYING RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE PLAINS. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NEBRASKA
IS LEADING TO A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SNOW AS MOST SHORT TERM MODELS AREN'T REGISTERING
EVEN 0.1 INCH OF SNOW. A SURFACE 1039 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE FRONT RANGE IS LEADING TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH IN WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST ENTERS WE SHOULD SEE THE COLD AIR MASS EXIT AND MILDER AIR
RETURNS AS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 5
(C). WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BE MORE
RELAXED THROUGH THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT 5-15 MPH.
TO START THE WORKWEEK SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWEST BEING TAMPERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY MID TO LATE DAY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE
IN COLORADO AND SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING THE
LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY MILD
AS 850 TEMPS WILL BE AT 10-12 (C) BUT WE SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY AS WE WILL HAVE THE INCREASE OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COLDER AIR STARTING ON TUESDAY AND THEN A
STRONGER WAVE WITH COLDER AIR COMING THROUGH KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE BOTH FRONTS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
THERE ISN'T MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH BUT
BOTH ENS AND GEFS QPF OUTPUT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS DO HAVE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AROUND A DUSTING OF
SNOW. AT THIS POINT POPS WILL REMAIN AT 10% OR BELOW UNLESS WE
START TO SEE A STRONGER SIGNAL OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE. AFTER
WEDNESDAY ENS AND GEFS 500 MB PATTERNS HAVE A LARGE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
TREND AND THE RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
EXIT AFTER 00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE CREATING THE CLOUDS MOVES INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS A SMALL (~20%) CHANCES OF SOME BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYS BETWEEN 18-21Z HOWEVER THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES. AFTER SUNSET THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND STAY GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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