686
FXUS63 KDDC 012001
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
201 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TO START THE WEEK
- MID WEEK COOL DOWN WITH SMALL CHANCES OF POP (15-20%) IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
20Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LARGE
TROUGH NOW FIRMLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODEST JET STREAK IS STARTING TO STREAM IN SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BRINGING IN
SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
GENERALLY A QUIET WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SOME
MODEST ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS THE RIDGE IN THE WEST SLIDING TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN DAMPENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THIS
SHOULD KEEP MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE REGION BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING
COLD FRONT WE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING A STRONGER LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND
MODEST MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE HAS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PRODUCING
SOME MODEST PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WE COULD SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (NBM
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH OF SNOW IS BELOW 10% AND
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH OF LIQUID IS AROUND 10-20%
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR). BASICALLY IT WILL BE A QUICK MOVING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED ECHOS ON
RADAR. THE WAVE WILL ALSO BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE TRENDS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOW A HUGE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS GIVES US HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE RETURN OR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WE SHOULD EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND
WINDS IN GENERAL UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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