614
FXUS63 KDDC 181119
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
- TEMPERATURES COOL LATE WEEK; WARM AGAIN INTO NEXT WEEK
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
STRONG OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 15% AND
SURFACE WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR GREATER WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HREF HAS 40-90% CHANCE
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OVERLAP FROM ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 183.
THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, LEADING TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD TO ANY ONGOING FIRES OR
ANY NEW POTENTIAL FIRES.
COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE WINDS
INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED DUE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
A POTENT, BUT RATHER FLAT SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY, DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL BRING WITH IT AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERALL MOISTURE AND LACKING LIFT WITH
THE SYSTEM. 01Z NBM HAD 30-60% POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED WITH
LREF ONLY MAXING OUT AT 35% CHANCE FOR A HALF-INCH OR MORE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE AFTERNOON EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH AT EACH TERMINAL. BY 00Z WINDS WILL START TO DIE
DOWN AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH GUSTY WINDS
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN TIME FRAME FOR WIND GUSTS WILL BE
12 PM AND WILL START TO DIMINISH AROUND 12 AM. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE AROUND 15 TO 20%. CONTINUE TO AVOID
ALL OUTDOOR BURNING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS, FIRE MANAGERS, AND
FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
OPERATIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY IGNITION WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A WILDFIRE QUICKLY, SPREAD RAPIDLY, AND
EXHIBIT CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 8
PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-
084>089.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BROWN
FIRE WEATHER...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page