224
FXUS63 KDDC 181735
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH.
- STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY TOMORROW WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL EXIST FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE,
LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT
AREAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE, ALTHOUGH MUCH
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE GUSTING
TO 35-40 MPH. THESE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL FOSTER UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH,
ALLOWING THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S.
THURSDAY MORNING, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW,
WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE DRAWING MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
40S NEAR I-70 TO THE LOW/MID 50S NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT AS NBM PROBABILITY
OF QPF GREATER THAN 0.01" IS LESS THAN 15% FOR ALL ZONES.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED
BY RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, BUT THE
APPROACHING RIDGE WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND STARTING EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE DIPPED A BIT COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, BUT PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER THAN
0.01" IS STILL IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00-01Z. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AOA
12 KTS AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST, AND THEN INCREASE AFTER 08-09Z
BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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