053
FXUS63 KDDC 190400
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY.
- EVEN COOLER FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.
- FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, ANOTHER RAPID WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CIRRUS THINNING OUT
OVER KANSAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. IN RESPONSE, THERE WILL BE A
MARKED INCREASE IN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSON SHOULD KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, IN THE 30S.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH SW KS 8-10AM
THURSDAY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL VEER NWLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY. NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY, THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
3 PM. INCREASED THESE NW WINDS TO THE STRONGEST GUIDANCE, JUST
BELOW THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM. THESE WINDS WILL A CONCERN FOR
ONGOING WILDFIRE/BURNSCAR MAINTENANCE, ESPECIALLY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 20% FROM LIBERAL TO COLDWATER.
IT APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS OF
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA, SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT THIS CONCERN WILL BE
PASSED ALONG TO THE NIGHT SHIFT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. DID TRIM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECASTS COLD ADVECTION LOWERING
850 MB TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C, WHICH SHOULD HOLD
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THIS WILL FEEL COLD, BUT
IT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD FEBRUARY. IF DDC REMAINS BELOW 50
THURSDAY, IT WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER, STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SEND MOST LOCALES TO THE TEENS SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEAR GRAND CANYON, ARIZONA 6 AM FRIDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN SW KS AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY, WITH AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. MOST MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, AND NBM PROBABILITY
OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN ONLY ONE INCH, IS ONLY 20-30% NORTH OF
US 50. THERE IS A CONCENSUS THAT ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE A MESOSCALE BAND OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATION MAY SET UP. AT ANY RATE, THIS WILL NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. COLDER AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S BOTH DAYS.
MODELS AGREE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP SW KS SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER RAPID WARMING
TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES, AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE
SWLY WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE THIS WARMUP, WITH NBM FORECASTING
LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS INTO
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24-28
FEBRUARY, WITH A PROBABLITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR
80%. AFTER THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY FRIDAY, SW KS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH AGAIN WIND
DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE IMPACTING AVIATION OPERATIONS. CIRRUS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL DECREASE, WITH SKC PREVAILING THURSDAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
AT HYS AFTER 18Z THU. SURFACE LOW IN NW KS AT 06Z THU, WILL MOVE
TO EASTERN KS BY 12Z THU, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15Z THU, A RAPID INCREASE IN NW WINDS
IS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 35-37 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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