413
FXUS63 KDDC 190543
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY.
- EVEN COOLER FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.
- FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, ANOTHER RAPID WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CIRRUS THINNING OUT
OVER KANSAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNRISE. IN RESPONSE, THERE WILL BE A
MARKED INCREASE IN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION SHOULD KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT, IN THE 30S.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH SW KS 8-10AM
THURSDAY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL VEER NWLY AND
INCREASE MARKEDLY. NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY, THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
3 PM. INCREASED THESE NW WINDS TO THE STRONGEST GUIDANCE, JUST
BELOW THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM. THESE WINDS WILL A CONCERN FOR
ONGOING WILDFIRE/BURNSCAR MAINTENANCE, ESPECIALLY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 20% FROM LIBERAL TO COLDWATER.
IT APPEARS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS OF
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA, SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT THIS CONCERN WILL BE
PASSED ALONG TO THE NIGHT SHIFT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. DID TRIM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z NAM FORECASTS COLD ADVECTION LOWERING
850 MB TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C, WHICH SHOULD HOLD
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THIS WILL FEEL COLD, BUT
IT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD FEBRUARY. IF DDC REMAINS BELOW 50
THURSDAY, IT WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, AND WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER, STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SEND MOST LOCALES TO THE TEENS SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEAR GRAND CANYON, ARIZONA 6 AM FRIDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN SW KS AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY, WITH AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. MOST MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, AND NBM PROBABILITY
OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN ONLY ONE INCH, IS ONLY 20-30% NORTH OF US
50. THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD FAVOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE A MESOSCALE BAND OF HIGHER ACCUMULATION MAY
SET UP. AT ANY RATE, THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
COLDER AIR WILL BE REINFORCED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S BOTH DAYS.
MODELS AGREE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP SW KS SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER RAPID WARMING
TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES, AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE
SWLY WINDS WILL ENCOURAGE THIS WARMUP, WITH NBM FORECASTING
LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS INTO
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24-28
FEBRUARY, WITH A PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 80%.
AFTER THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY FRIDAY, SW KS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY PEAK
FROM 15Z TO 21Z, SUSTAINED 23 TO 27 KNOTS WITH GUSTS WELL INTO
THE UPPER 30S KNOTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIR
MASS WILL BE, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF ONE-HOUR WINDOW OF
CEILING AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET, TIED TO THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT THE CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED DURATION OF ANY CEILING
LOWER THAN 3000 FEET IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
OPTED TO ISSUE ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 9 AM THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY, BUT AIR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO
REDUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO NEAR 20%. GIVEN THESE AT
LEAST ELEVATED RED FLAG CONDITIONS, AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE WILDFIRE IMPACTED
COUNTIES, DECIDED THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO KEEP A RED
FLAG WARNING GOING. FIRE CREWS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST FLANKS OF ONGOING WILDFIRES/BURN SCARS AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ084>090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page