465
FXUS63 KDDC 192313
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
513 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TODAY, BUT WILL STILL DRAW MUCH COOLER AIR INTO OUR
AREA.
- LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S/70S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS SHOW STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IMPACTING OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
OZARKS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN
WE HAVE SEEN ALL WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S NEAR I-70 TO THE LOW/MID 50S NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND
COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO SUPPORT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CONUS, FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. RENEWED LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM IN
RESPONSE, RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. THESE FACTORS MAY FOSTER SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FAVORING THE NORTHERN SIX COUNTIES OF OUR CWA, HOWEVER HREF
PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 1" IS LESS THAN 20% FOR ALL
AREAS, SAVE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF FAR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY, SO
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S. OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES FROM LIBERAL TO JOHNSON CITY AND SOUTH WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACE BY
LONGWAVE RIDGING. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL ENGENDER A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 60S AND 70S BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AS NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF GREATER THAN
0.01" IS LESS THAN 10% UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS, INCREASING
10-20 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING THE AREA, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER CIGS, IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. PROBABILITIES OF MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORIES IS LOW, LESS
THAN 20% THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BENNETT
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