801
FXUS63 KDDC 200500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, LOW IMPACT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION FEATURES
A DEPARTING 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST, AND A
STRONG 300 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE ORDER OF 140-160 KNOTS
AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH, CURRENTLY
SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HAS
LEAD TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
THE FLAT TROUGH, WEAK SURFACE LOW, AND MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY LESS THEN 0.5"
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR, WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. EVEN THE HIGH-END SCENARIO (1 IN 10
CHANCE OF HIGHER SNOWFALL) HAS ONLY 1.5" AND LESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, SO THE CEILING FOR THIS SNOW EVENT IS VERY LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
TAPERING OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE TO
12-15C, RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE TOO
LOW, AS 01Z NBM PROBABILITIES OF 80 DEGREES OR GREATER IS 20-40%
(ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK). ABOVE NORMAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, WITH THE CPC HIGHLIGHTING "LIKELY ABOVE" CATEGORIES
IN THEIR 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK AT 60-70% CHANCE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OF THE FORECAST ARE
MINIMAL, WITH ONLY 20% POPS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS, INCREASING
10-20 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING THE AREA, SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
18Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
ONLY MARGINALLY LOWER CIGS, IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. PROBABILITIES OF MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORIES IS LOW, LESS
THAN 20% THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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