879
FXUS63 KDDC 201750
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL CHANCES HAVE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
FAVORING OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE 1-2" OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- MUCH WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS,
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CO AND ADJACENT AREAS, WITH THE CLASSIC "BAROCLINIC
LEAF" SIGNATURE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN CO.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INCREASE MAINLY WEST OF US-283, BECOMING SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20
MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FEEL MORE LIKE 30S TO LOW
40S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF US-50.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE ALL INCREASED
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS MODELS SHOW THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSE OFF AT 700-MB FOR A FEW HOURS, ALLOWING
FOR STRONGER LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND THEREFORE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST 1-2" IS
MOST LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS, BUT ENSEMBLE MAX IS IN THE 2-4"
RANGE, SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SNOWFALL TOTALS CLIMB INTO
THAT RANGE LOCALLY. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR TREGO, ELLIS, NESS, AND RUSH COUNTIES, WITH
WESTWARD EXPANSION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY
DEPARTS. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD, REINFORCING THE
COOL AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA AND KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MID-NEXT
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY DESPITE THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON MONDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING FROM THE 50S ON MONDAY INTO THE 60S
AND 70 THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NBM
POPS ARE QUIET (<15%) THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS TAF CYCLE. SNOWFALL CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, YIELDING
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION -SN IN THE DDC, GCK, AND HYS TAFS,
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE DURING THE 00-08Z TIME
FRAME. OTHERWISE, CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT GCK AND LBL, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
DDC, INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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