216
FXUS63 KDDC 210402
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1002 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR IMPACT SNOW EVENT ONGOING
- WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK
- LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY UP ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE SNOW SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE
SURFACE, BUT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE, SNOW SHOULD
FILL IN MORE OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 2" WILL BE EXPECTED, WITH
AREAS ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 1-1.5"
RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FOR
AREAS THAT COULD SEE MINOR IMPACT FROM SLICK ROADWAYS FROM WET
ROADS FREEZING. ANYONE TRAVELING ALONG IN ELLIS, TREGO, NESS,
AND RUSH COUNTIES SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTS THE RIGHT WAY AS
THE SYSTEM PIVOTS EASTWARD, HEAVIER BANDING COULD RESULT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SITUATION WHERE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 2" OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS SCENARIO IS 10-20% AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED OF THIS POTENTIAL PROGRESSION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER 6 AM CST.
AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WE WILL EXPECT TO SEE DAILY
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPCOMING RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE REGIME
WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES TO BE +10-20C AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CORRELATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES OR GREATER IS 30-40%,
NAMELY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF ROUTE 283. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MODELED
AT THIS TIME, POPS ARE LOW AT ONLY 20-30% IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM, THAT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOWFALL,
REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND LOWER CIGS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR HYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15 KNOTS, SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO NORTHWEST FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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