151
FXUS63 KDDC 211128
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR IMPACT SNOW EVENT ONGOING
- WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK
- LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW HAS
BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY UP ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE SNOW SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE
SURFACE, BUT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE, SNOW SHOULD
FILL IN MORE OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 2" WILL BE EXPECTED, WITH
AREAS ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 1-1.5"
RANGE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FOR
AREAS THAT COULD SEE MINOR IMPACT FROM SLICK ROADWAYS FROM WET
ROADS FREEZING. ANYONE TRAVELING ALONG IN ELLIS, TREGO, NESS,
AND RUSH COUNTIES SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTS THE RIGHT WAY AS
THE SYSTEM PIVOTS EASTWARD, HEAVIER BANDING COULD RESULT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SITUATION WHERE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 2" OF SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS SCENARIO IS 10-20% AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED OF THIS POTENTIAL PROGRESSION. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER 6 AM CST.
AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WE WILL EXPECT TO SEE DAILY
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPCOMING RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE REGIME
WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES TO BE +10-20C AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CORRELATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES OR GREATER IS 30-40%,
NAMELY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF ROUTE 283. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MODELED
AT THIS TIME, POPS ARE LOW AT ONLY 20-30% IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY (500 TO 900 FEET AGL) WAS
EXPANDING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S STORM
SYSTEM. LATEST HRRR AND HREF MODELS SUGGEST THIS STRATUS WILL
START TO ERODE AROUND DDC BY 15Z. GCK TERMINAL WILL BE ON THE
EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK, SO WE WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR STRATUS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE, OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY
LATE MORNING. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT GCK, DDC, AND
LBL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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