177
FXUS63 KDDC 221600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FEBRUARY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, A RAPID WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM 70S EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
ONE MORE DAY AND NIGHT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
DOWNSLOPE REGIME BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
10S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH, THOUGH 50S CAN BE SEEN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE ONE MORE MORNING (AT
LEAST FOR A WHILE) IN THE 10S AND 20S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE BY DOWNSLOPING, WITH THURSDAY BEING
THE "COOLER" DAY OF THE WEEK (STILL HIGHS IN THE 60S AS OF
NOW). WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS, IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTIONS SOME OF THE DAYS COULD SEE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
RISK, BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHICH DAYS MAY HAVE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF ANY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE FORECAST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID-WEEK. FRONT TIMING IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT THE LATEST LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE
TIMES IT WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW ARE 15-30%. ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE, GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS NOT HIGHLIGHTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 15Z MON, SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 23-25 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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