236
FXUS63 KDDC 222321
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
521 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FEBRUARY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND, A RAPID WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM 70S EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUED AT MIDDAY WITH LITTLE TO
DISCUSS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLEAR SKY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN EXCESS OF
1040 MB PREVAILED WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME. DESPITE THE FULL
SUNSHINE, THE LACK OF MIXING IN THE COOL AIRMASS WILL KEEP MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY,
ALLOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN. AS SUCH, TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL, IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES MONDAY UNDER A BENIGN DRY NWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST FEW IF ANY
CLOUDS, AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AFTER 9 AM. WIND
FIELDS AT 850 MB SUPPORT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH, WITH EXCELLENT
MIXING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS THE COOL AIR MASS
ERODES. MODELS SHOW QUICK WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AFTER
NOON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 60S BY 4 PM.
MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMING TUESDAY, DESPITE MUCH WEAKER WINDS
AND MIXING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AT 850 MB TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARMUP WELL INTO THE 70S THROUGH MIDDAY,
BEFORE A VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY. NO
CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY, WITH IMPROVING SWLY
DOWNSLOPE AND PREFRONTAL COMPRESSION SUPPORTING MORE 70S IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE
80 DEGREES.
A LARGELY DRY, PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO RACE THROUGH
SW KS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS (STRONGER THAN
NBM GUIDANCE) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(QPF > 0.01 INCH) IS ONLY 40%, FAVORING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY. NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF > 0.10 INCH IS ONLY NEAR 10%.
WITH THE INCOMING AIRMASS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN, MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN, BUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN EARLY THURSDAY
AS THICKNESSES DROP TO 546 DM.
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM IS WEAK AND FLEETING, MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN SW KS DURING THE COLD SEASON.
QUIET MILD WEATHER QUICKLY RESUMES THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS PROBABLE ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITED RAIN SHOWER OPPORTUNITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH THE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, MOVES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO DEEPENS. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON, BASED ON THE LATEST BUFR
SOUNDINGS MIXING POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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