529
FXUS63 KDDC 231007
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MONDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE DAY WEST OF A SUBLETTE TO MEADE LINE.
- BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH A 20
TO 50% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DESPITE THIS EXPECTED COOL
DOWN, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLIER THIS EVENING. WINDS WERE LIGHT, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM -4C IN THE HAYS AREA TO NEARLY +4C AT ELKHART. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH A 500MB
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD, IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP,
RESULTING IN FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
BY LATE MONDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 5C AND 10C, RISING FURTHER TO AROUND 15C BY LATE
TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (REFS) SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 70%) IN THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
SMALL SPREAD (LESS THAN 3C BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE). GIVEN ALL THIS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY
REACH OR EXCEED NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY EVEN
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF A
DRYLINE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NBM SHOWS A 30-70%
CHANCE OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASED FIRE RISK. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE INCREASING WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING BACK INTO
THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A
SUBLETTE TO MEADE LINE BASED ON WHERE THERE WILL BE AN OVERLAP
OF WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15%.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF MEETING
LOCALIZED RED FLAG CRITERIA ON MONDAY IN THIS AREA. BASED ON
THIS AND AFTER GOOD COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THE
CONSENSUS WAS TO OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY.
DESPITE NOT REACHING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY...THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY FIRE
THAT DOES OCCUR TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND BE DIFFICULT
TO CONTROL. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ON
MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE, MOVING OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO BRIEFLY ENTER SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURGING BACK
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. AS THE SECOND, MORE SOUTHERN TRACKING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MIDWEEK, THERE WILL BE A 20-50% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, MOISTURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR. STILL, THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT QPF. THE LATEST LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE MAINTAINS A 40-55%
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXCEEDING 0.01 INCHES NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LESS THAN A 20%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 0.1 INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ALLOWING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
BRIEFLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE THIS EXPECTED COOL
DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. THE NET RESULT IS SE TO S WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY DUSK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
FOR MONDAY, THE FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND
A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, RESULTING
IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS AREA WHERE THE LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL OCCUR WILL ALSO BE LOCATED WHERE THE WEAKER
AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED (10-20MPH), GIVEN THAT ITS
LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE EASTERLY COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS(15 TO
25MPH) WILL OCCUR BUT THIS IS WHERE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER. EACH OF THESE AREAS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 1PM AND 6PM
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL OVERLAP THE LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 15% WHICH MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE AREA WHERE THIS WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE WEST OF A SUBLETTE TO
MEADE LINE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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