098
FXUS63 KDDC 232325
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MONDAY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE DAY WEST OF A SUBLETTE TO MEADE LINE.
- BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH A 20
TO 50% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DESPITE THIS EXPECTED COOL
DOWN, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS
LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER KANSAS. A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IS
LEADING TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
USHERING OUT THE COLD AIR MASS WE HAD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BEGIN
THE TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
OF NOTE THIS FEBRUARY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHICH IS 11-16 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS WE SHOULD STAY MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE WITH PERIODIC COLD FRONTS ONLY DROPPING
US BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FOR TUESDAY WE SHOULD HAVE
LESS WIND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LESS.
PERIODIC MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY KEEP US FROM
REACHING INTO WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TERRITORY BUT WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 15-19 (C) WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MID RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THE WEEK
COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A 700 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ENS AND GEFS QPF OUTPUTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND HAYS. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH ARE ONLY AT 10-20% SO THIS
WILL BE A MINOR RAIN EVENT.
THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND SHOWS ANOTHER
LARGE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN KANSAS FOR SATURDAY. WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE FOR FEBRUARY STANDARDS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT EAST OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DECREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY. WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
DAY, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GARDEN CITY,
DODGE CITY, AND LIBERAL. IN THE HAYS AREA A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE IT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY, RESULTING IN THE WESTERLY WINDS HERE
TO WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TUESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...BURGERT
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