056
FXUS63 KDDC 240521 CCA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1121 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR ELEVATED OR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW 80S.
- A CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE 70S
ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
EARLIER THIS EVENING, A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WERE OCCURRING
EAST OF THIS DEEPENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 6PM MONDAY EVENING
RANGED FROM 6C IN THE HAYS AREA TO NEAR 13C ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE 500MB RIDGE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES,
RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO WESTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 15C AND NEAR 20C BY 6PM
TUESDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 5C WARMER THAN MONDAY EVENING. AS A
RESULT, THE NBM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND WAS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS IN FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. SOME AREAS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, THEY
WILL STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
THIS DATE (FEBRUARY 24TH). FYI...THE RECORD HIGH FOR GARDEN CITY
ON 2/24 IS 80 DEGREES, FOR DODGE CITY IT IS 79, AND FOR
MEDICINE LODGE IT IS 84.
IN ADDITION TO THESE WARM CONDITIONS, DRY WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 10% OR LESS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 10 TO 15% WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS
COLDWATER, GREENSBURG, LARNED, AND HAYS. DESPITE THE LOWER
HUMIDITY TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKER. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE ON WIND SPEEDS KEEPS WIND SPEEDS
BELOW 20 MPH, AND THE HRRR MAXIMUM WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND
LATEST BUFR SOUNDING MIXED LAYER WINDS ALSO FAVOR THIS WEAKER
WIND SPEED SOLUTION. AS A RESULT, DESPITE THE LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY NEAR ELEVATED OR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THESE LIGHT WINDS.
NONETHELESS, THESE CONDITIONS WILL STILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE FIRES CAN MORE EASILY ESCAPE CONTROL AND BE DIFFICULT TO
CONTAIN. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK, MAINLY RESULTING IN A
WIND SHIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEY
WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A STRONGER
PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THIS COLD
FRONT PASSES LEADING TO A 30-50% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY. LATEST WPC QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW
GIVEN THAT THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES. IN ADDITION THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE
STAYING BELOW 0.05 INCHES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY
THURSDAY, PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AS OUR NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP
FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) IN THIS COOLING TREND GIVEN THAT THE MEAN 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING FROM THE TEENS ON FRIDAY TO THEN
NEAR 5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALSO 60-70% OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
HAVE THESE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW WHAT THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
SUGGEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
EARLIER THIS EVENING A 40 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON THESE WEST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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