778
FXUS63 KDDC 242310
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH ARE EXPECTED.
- MORE SEASONABLE, COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEHIND
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUED AT MIDDAY WITH NO HAZARDS,
HEADLINES OR IMPACTS, AND LITTLE TO DISCUSS. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED WIDESPREAD BUT THIN CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS
EMBEDDED IN THE QUIET NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS, MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED QUIET
WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SUNRISE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
PLEASANT QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW MINIMAL
COOLING COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT LIGHT SWLY DOWNSLOPE, AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NW KS, SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THAT DIFFERENCE.
STILL EXPECTING LOWER 70S TO BE COMMON.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FORECASTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ELEVATED NORTH
WINDS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CONTINUITY WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL
LIFT, RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS, BUT THIS WILL BE A MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM. CAN'T DISCOUNT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SW KS,
BUT NBM POPS ARE CORRECTLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. NBM PROBABILITY OF
EVEN JUST MEASURABLE RAIN (QPF > 0.01 INCH) IS ONLY 20-30%. IN
OTHER WORDS, IT IS MORE LIKELY MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS/SPRINKLES OR NOTHING AT ALL. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THURSDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS.
ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMING FRIDAY, ENHANCED BY THE RETURN OF
SWLY DOWNSLOPE. EXPECTING 70S TO ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN A 10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES
PER THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE.
VARIOUS MODELS, AND TO VARIOUS DEGREES, SUGGEST COOLER AIR WILL
BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO SW KS DURING THE WEEKEND, OR OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE SW KS WILL REMAIN
DRY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. NBM/WPC AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S APPEAR REASONABLE.
A TREND TO A WETTER REGIME APPEARS APPARENT IN EARLY MARCH. THE
6-10 OUTLOOK FROM CPC ALREADY HIGHLIGHTS 50% PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MARCH 1-5, AND THIS WILL LIKELY RISE
OVER THE COMING DAYS. LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE QUITE WET, WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUTOFF CYCLONE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND MARCH 5TH. NOT MUCH
MORE THAN CONJECTURE THIS FAR OUT, BUT GIVEN GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND LACK OF COLD AIR, SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAY RESULT
AROUND MARCH 4-5TH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIODS, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO 10-12 KTS BY 18-19Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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