929
FXUS63 KDDC 112210
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY.
- AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER ON FRIDAY.
- OUR NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
WEEK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE RISK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL BE REACHED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT WILL BE
UPGRADING THE FIRE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE RISK
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HIGHER FIRE RISKS WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. A COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
SHARPLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WILL BE REPLACED BY
40S/50S ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW/NIL.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND POSSIBLY AGAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ON FRIDAY.
A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WEST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO DEEP MIXING. THIS MIXING
WILL ALSO FAVOR LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, POTENTIALLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 10%. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS A RESULT, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE REASON FOR THE
DECREASED FIRE RISK IS DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIEFLY MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY AND LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE DAY.
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY, AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, WHERE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 PERCENT RANGE. IN THIS AREA, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
AS COOLER AIR FROM FRIDAYS COLD FRONT ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS WARMTH PRECEDES OUR NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY. THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THIS COLD FRONT
PASSES GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE STRONG GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. ON SUNDAY SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 45 MPH, WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF DODGE CITY. THE NBM INDICATES A 50-80% CHANCE
OF HIGHS BELOW 50 DEGREES NORTH OF DODGE CITY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 09-11Z AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
IN EASTERN COLORADO, THEN STRENGTHEN 25 TO 35KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEEPENS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A DRY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP. BASED ON THE MIXING DEPTH
POTENTIAL SHOWN IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS, THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST. ALSO GIVEN THE MIXING
DEPTH POTENTIAL IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
EASILY FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10%
TO 15% FORECAST RANGE BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SHOW A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS ENHANCE CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE MET. AS A RESULT, THE FIRE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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