020
FXUS63 KDDC 130436
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- DRAMATICALLY COLDER SUNDAY
- TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
TONIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND DUSK. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO AROUND 40F
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. THE NET RESULT
IS SSE TO SSW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAGNITUDES SHOULD BE
WEAKER THAN THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE, BUT AGAIN,
WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND ZERO PERCENT.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL SATURDAY, BECAUSE
AT LEAST HALF OF THE FA SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 10-15% RANGE. WINDS COULD BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AS LEE TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS SUNDAY. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH DOWN
IN THE -3C TO -8C RANGE DURING THE DAY. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH MOST
OF THE NEIGHBORS TO GO WITH NBM25 HIGHS SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS
IN THE 40S RATHER THAN THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THERE MIGHT BE AS
MUCH AS A 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION, 850 WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE, SO STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW ALL DAY LONG. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE GIVES ABOUT
A 75% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 50+ DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ENS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUNDAY. DON'T HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON
THIS THOUGH, AS MOISTURE IN THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE.
LOOKING AT THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK... TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE WEEK BEGINS. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
INCREASING FIRE DANGER THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARGINAL LLWS IS FORECAST FOR HYS IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES,
BUT THE OCCASIONAL HIGH BASED CLOUD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY LIGHT (5-15 KTS) AND SHIFTING NEARLY 360 DEGREES STARTING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING CLOCKWISE AND ENDING FROM THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF WEAK SURFACE SYSTEMS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KBJ
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