910
FXUS63 KDDC 131048
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- DRAMATICALLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS; NORTH
WINDS UP TO 45-55 MPH AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 60 MPH
- TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ALOFT WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE DAKOTAS. A MODEST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF THE CONUS. WITH THE CWA IN BETWEEN,
STRONG SW WINDS GUSTED TODAY ACROSS SW KANSAS. INTO THE NIGHT, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIGHTENING UP AND SHIFTING TO A MORE
VARIABLE WIND REGIME. WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUIET SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
LITTLE TO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SUNDAY PROVIDING
FORECAST DIFFICULTY/FOCUS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
BEING VERY WARM IN THE 70/80S FOR HIGHS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY, BUT WITH WINDS <15 MPH EXPECTED, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE QUELLED.
ENSEMBLES HAVE HELD FIRM IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENT MEDIUM
AND LONG RANGED MODELS HAVE THE CONNECTED NEAR-SURFACE LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN EAST OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT OCCUR WILL BE WRAP-AROUND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO VIRTUALLY ZERO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES (10-25%) FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST OF
THESE CHANCES ARE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
SYSTEM PATH, DRYSLOT POSITIONING, AND MOISTURE CONTENT, BUT TRENDS
TO THIS POINT IN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY WITH
MINIMAL RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES. THE GREATER THREAT/IMPACT WITH THE
SYSTEM IS VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLES HAVE
THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY AT AROUND 5-8 AM. BEHIND IT WINDS ARE PROGGED AT 40-45
MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS IS TOO LOW ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 MPH TO BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS. ALL OF THE CWA
SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 60-65 MPH AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN HIGHER. AGAIN MEASURED UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE ADVISED, BUT
IF IT IS AS WELL MIXED AS IT SEEMS THEN STRONG WINDS ARE ALL BUT
ASSURED. THE ONLY QUESTION IS QUITE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE AND WHETHER A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE NEEDED. THIS WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
THROUGH THE WEEK, THE CWA WILL SEE DRY AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED 20 MPH (AGAIN
EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY). BECAUSE THE ONLY TIME STRONG ENOUGH WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE MUCH HIGHER ELIMINATING NEARLY ALL CONCERNS. WITH
THAT IN MIND, THE SPC HAS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FRIDAY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT THE WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN 40/50S. WITH THE NORTH WINDS CONTINUING, ALBEIT
WEAKER, MORE CAA IS FORECAST AND WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER AGAIN
MONDAY IN THE 50S BEFORE A MID-WEEK WARMUP. INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES HAVE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES
ACROSS SW KANSAS. THAT WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BESIDES SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 15Z WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WIND CHANGE TO THE NORTHWEST
COMING TOWARDS 12Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TATRO
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