039
FXUS63 KDDC 132205
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS SATURDAY
- VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLDER SUNDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A MILD AND ABOVE FREEZING NIGHT IS ON TAP. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP. FOR SATURDAY, LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE
FA. DO NOT BURN!
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
WILL CRASH DOWN TO THE -3C TO -9C RANGE. IN ADDITION, 40-50 KT
850 HPA WINDS AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATICALLY COLDER
AND VERY WINDY DAY. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FA SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 40 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. THERE ALSO MAY BE BLOWING DUST DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
LOOKING AT THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND TUESDAY ONWARD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NET RESULT IS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MORE
IN THE LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GREATER REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 15-17Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WARM HIGHS, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BE ISSUED AS A RESULT OF THIS METEOROLOGICAL SETUP.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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