692
FXUS63 KDDC 141007
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS
- A COOLER SUNDAY WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH AND BLOWING DUST
FORECAST
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD AS SW KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SEE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT. A FEW SPORADIC SURFACE
PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT (5-15 MPH) WINDS. SATURDAY WILL LOOK
EXCEEDINGLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY JUST WARMER AND A LITTLE BREEZIER. DRY
AIR AND A MILD (10-20 MPH) SOUTH WIND WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WIND
WILL HELP BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO SW KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RACE
TO THE 80S WITH ENSEMBLES PLACING MEANS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA PAST
THE 80 MARK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE LOW DURING THE
DAY; THE SPC HAS AREAS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER AT CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST WINDS ARE VERY MARGINAL, A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FOR THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF COUNTIES. TAKE PROPER FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS.
SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS WITH ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO HOLD STEADY
DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DESCENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE PATH OF THE LOWER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE WAY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE AREA WILL MISS OUT ON
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE ENTIRE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. REGARDLESS, ANYTHING THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND VERY LIMITED. ENSEMBLES HAVE AROUND A 15-30% CHANCE
OF SAID PRECIPITATION WITH THE MAXIMA POSITIONING VARYING RADICALLY
BY RUN. WHAT HAS BEEN HELD IN AGREEMENT IS THE VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT DESCENDING ON THE BACK HALF OF SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE USUALLY WAY TO SOFT WITH WINDS IN THESE SETUPS AND A
BLEND OF THE 75TH PERCENTILE WAS USED. THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH
WITH FORECASTED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40-55 MPH WINDS AND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 65 MPH. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS BETWEEN SCOTT CITY AND LIBERAL. WITH THESE VERY STRONG WINDS,
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY WINDS. IT IS A NEAR
CERTAINTY THAT THIS WILL EVENTUALLY GET UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING. ADDITIONALLY WITH ANY DAMAGE THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE, BLOWING
DUST IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE AN ISSUE AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING
VISIBILITIES TO CREATE HAZARD TRAVELING CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO NOT BE AS DRY AS
SURROUNDING DAYS SO FIRE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
MONDAY WILL FIGHT THE NORTH WINDS TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40/50S. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM UP DRAMATICALLY WITH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE 70/80S. ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE SOME
AREAS IN FAR SW KANSAS REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK BUT EXACT
TEMPERATURES STILL HOLD SOME UNCERTAINTY. THIS STRETCH IS FORECAST
TO RESTORE THE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER. EVEN
FIRE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL WITH NEARLY NO WINDS EXCEEDING 15 MPH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO 15-25 KTS BETWEEN
18-00Z. AFTER 06Z A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A SHARP SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR STARTING AT HYS AROUND 08Z AND THEN GCK, DDC, AND LBL
BETWEEN 09-10Z. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WARM HIGHS, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BE ISSUED AS A RESULT OF THIS METEOROLOGICAL SETUP.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TATRO
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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