225
FXUS63 KDDC 142200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY
MORNING.
- INTENSE NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY, GUSTING 60-70 MPH. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING, IN THE TEENS.
- A VERY RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
UNSEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOONS NEAR 90 EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.
- OUTSIDE OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUNDAY MORNING, SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
TOMORROW AND HELP PUSH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WIND FROM THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. RHS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 60 MPH LIKELY. SINCE WE HAVEN'T HAD ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATELY SOME BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS THEN DECREASE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 80S WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
MOST LIKELY BE FELT EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STEADY OR DECREASING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION, EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ABOVE THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FROM OCCURRING. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 50S
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH
80S MID TO LATE WEEK. A FEW PLACES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
MAY REACH THE LOWER 90S, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK. LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE 20S TUESDAY MORNING WITH 40S AND 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OUTSIDE OF ANY BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY SUNDAY, VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD, WITH
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS AT
22Z SAT WILL VEER NWLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE AT THE AIRPORTS AROUND 12Z SUN. INTENSE NORTH WINDS WILL
IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, GUSTING 45-55 KTS,
WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO LIGHT NWLY AFTER 00Z MON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 10-15% RANGE. THE LEE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WARM HIGHS, AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...TURNER
FIRE WEATHER...HOVORKA_42
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