594
FXUS63 KDDC 150511
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY
MORNING.
- INTENSE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY GUSTING 60-70 MPH AND A
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT.
- AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING, IN THE TEENS BEFORE
A VERY RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CURRENT RAP MESOANALYSIS HAS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO. ENSEMBLES
HAVE THIS DEVELOPING AND GREATLY DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT DESCENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE ENTIRE SEVERE THREAT, IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA, SW KANSAS MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION AND VERY
HIGH WINDS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS MINIMAL (15-25% VIA
ENSEMBLES) BUT NOT ZERO AS SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN/SNOW FALLS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ANYWHERE IT OCCURS WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF TYPE, IT IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY MINIMAL WITH LITTLE (<0.1") ACCUMULATIONS
OUTSIDE A POTENTIAL ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO. THE MORE PRESSING CONCERNS
ARE THE VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DESCEND THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 5-7 AM. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40-50 MPH AND GUSTS OF UP TO 65 AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED
GUSTS OF 70 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY BE IN
AND AROUND GARDEN CITY. WITH THE FRONT AND THESE WINDS, COLD AIR IS
FORECAST TO SHARPLY MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED IN THE 30-40S. FOR THE MOST PART, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL SEE SOME RELIEF, BUT FAR SW KANSAS (ESPECIALLY MORTON) COULD
SEE CONDITIONS APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE HIGH WINDS, BLOWING DUST IS
FORECASTED CWA WIDE. EXACTLY HOW MUCH, AND HOW DENSE IT OCCURS, IS
UNDER SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE DUST MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND PROVIDE
MORE HAZARDS TO THE ALREADY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ANYONE
TRAVELING NEEDS TO TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. WITH THE WINDS AND
CAA, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO THE TEENS.
BEYOND THE EXCITEMENT OF SUNDAY, A VERY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. ENSEMBLES KEEP THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DRY. EVEN THOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW, WINDS
BEYOND SUNDAY ARE NOT CLOSE TO REACHING FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. WITH
DRY QUIET WEATHER, VERY LITTLE ELSE IS NOTEWORTHY, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE SEVERITY OF SUNDAY. AFTER THE LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE 40/50S), HIGHS WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
IS IN THE 80S AND APPROACHING THE 90S IN FAR SW KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
VFR, ESPECIALLY IF THE BLOWING DUST DROPS VISIBILITIES BELOW
THRESHOLDS. SOME LLWS MAY ALSO KICK OFF THE TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT
HYS AND GCK. OTHER THAN BLOWING DUST, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25% VIA ENSEMBLES; IF IT
OCCURS, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD. WITH THE
FRONT DESCENDING INTO THE CWA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, VERY STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. PEAKING AROUND 12-18Z, WINDS MAY
REACH UP TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KTS. AFTER AROUND 0Z, WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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