687
FXUS63 KDDC 161014
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEAR AND COLD MONDAY MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IN
THE TEENS.
- SUNNY AND COOL, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW MID MARCH NORMALS
MONDAY, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DRY ADVECTION WERE IN PROGRESS SUNDAY
EVENING. STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD DIRECTLY OVER SW KS THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH A 1032 MB
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED AT 7 AM MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT MODELS INDICATE A LIGHT NW WIND
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS WILL DETER RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO AN EXTENT, BUT COLD/DRY ADVECTION ALONE WILL ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AT 7 AM. INDEED,
THE FORECAST LOWS OF 12-15 FROM GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY ARE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 16, AROUND
9 DEGREES. THIS IS CERTAINLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR, WITH 00Z NAM
FORECASTING 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C, AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 0.10 INCH MONDAY MORNING. FULLY EXPECT OUR COLDEST
LOCALES IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WILL FALL BELOW 10 DEGREES. WITH
THE CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND, WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ZERO
SUNRISE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST MONDAY, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S, WELL BELOW MARCH NORMALS, BUT WITH
MUCH LESS WIND IT WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN SUNDAY.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA ON
MONDAY, WITH A 510 DM CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A 590 DM
RIDGE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THIS WEEK,
AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD.
THIS WILL BE A HISTORICALLY, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 597 DM OVER
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. SW KS WILL RESIDE ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH FEW CLOUDS AND ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HEIGHTS, THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAILY,
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THE PEAK OF THE MARCH
HEATWAVE WILL BE SATURDAY. MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTS A HIGH OF 94
AT DDC MARCH 21; AS IT TURNS OUT, THE RECORD HIGH AT DDC FOR
MARCH 21 IS 94, A RECORD THAT HAS STOOD SINCE 1907. NBM HAS BEEN
CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HEATWAVE FOR MANY RUNS, BUT GIVEN HOW
UNUSUAL THIS IS, SO EARLY IN SPRING, NBM IS PROBABLY NOT WARM
ENOUGH. MID 90S SHOULD BE COMMON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY PREFRONTAL SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION, AND OUR WARMEST
SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES. THE LACK OF
RECENT PRECIPITATION, AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK, WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE TOPSOILS, FURTHER ENCOURAGING THE RECORD
WARMTH.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEXT SUNDAY, BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE
MARCH HEAT WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. HOWEVER, THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC SUGGESTS THAT THIS COOLING WILL BE
TEMPORARY, WITH A 90% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MARCH 21-25.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO
RAIN OR SNOW IN, OR EVEN NEAR, SW KS THROUGH MARCH 30TH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR HYS AND DDC BETWEEN 15Z-00Z.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
UNSEASONABLY COOL, DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY. DESPITE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL STILL FALL TO 15-20% WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH, MUCH LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY, PRECLUDING MOST FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH.
A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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