828
FXUS63 KDDC 161743
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1243 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SOME PLACES REACHING LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- RHS WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT DECREASING FIRE DANGER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM
FORMING. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 40S WITH LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK BUT ONLY EXPECT A SHORT CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTH, THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEED
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY, 80S THURSDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS THEN LOOK TO LOWER TO NORMALS AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOW 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND THE HYS TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
UNSEASONABLY COOL, DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. DESPITE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL BELOW NORMAL, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL
FALL TO 15-20% WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH, MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY, PRECLUDING MOST FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH.
A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR OR BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
FIRE WEATHER...HOVORKA_42
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