891
FXUS63 KDDC 162211
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SOME PLACES REACHING LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- RHS WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT DECREASING FIRE DANGER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 506 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
40-70% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER THAN 25 MPH WEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST MIXED LAYER WINDS
FROM THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS,
WHICH ENHANCES CONFIDENCE OF THESE STRONGER AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS. GIVEN THIS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THESE NORTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY, THE FIRE RISK HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
ELEVATED FOR THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM
FORMING. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 40S WITH LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 20S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK BUT ONLY EXPECT A SHORT CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTH, THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEED
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY, 80S THURSDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS THEN LOOK TO LOWER TO NORMALS AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOW 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT 22Z TODAY WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TOWARD NEBRASKA. BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY
AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF
VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FT AGL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BURGERT
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT
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