833
FXUS63 KDDC 171011
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRAMATICALLY WARMER TUESDAY.
- A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
DRY AIR WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS SW KS AS OF MONDAY EVENING, WITH
MOST DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 10 DEGREES. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS DETERRING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SUNRISE, WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT, AT LEAST COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S RECORD BREAKING
COLD. SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ARE EXPECTED, BUT IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS, THIS FORECAST MAY BE TOO COLD. WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO KICK IN ALOFT AROUND SUNRISE.
THE WARMUP ON TUESDAY WILL BE DRAMATIC, AS THE RESIDUAL MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR IS COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ALL
MODELS SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING ON THE ORDER OF 18C OVER MONDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 30 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
VERSUS MONDAY, IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, AND THIS COMPRESSION OVER THE INCREASINGLY
DRY TOPSOILS WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE.
THE LARGE, HISTORICALLY STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL
CONTROL SW KS WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK, WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
LOS ANGELES 7 PM TUESDAY. THIS MASSIVE RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS WEEK, WITH MODELS PLACING IT OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SONORA, MEXICO BY 7 PM SATURDAY. SW KS
WILL RESIDE ON THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH, WITH FEW CLOUDS AND CERTAINLY 0% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL PROGRESSIVELY CLIMB
EACH DAY THIS WEEK, CULMINATING WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NBM HAS CORRECTLY ADVERTISED THIS MARCH HEATWAVE, BUT
BECAUSE IT IS SO HIGHLY ANOMALOUS, AND SO EARLY IN THE SPRING,
SUSPECT MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT HOT ENOUGH. FEEL SOUTHWEST ZONES
NEAR ELKHART WILL FLIRT WITH 100 SATURDAY, WHERE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 28C AND PREFRONTAL COMPRESSION MAY COME
INTO PLAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE NEXT VIGOROUS, BUT DRY COLD
FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT SUNDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER AIR SUNDAY. IT'S PRETTY CRAZY CALLING 70S "COOLER"
IN MARCH, BUT THIS NBM FORECAST APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY COOLING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEDNESDAY MARCH 25TH MAY
FEATURE A HIGHER END WILDFIRE RISK, AS WARM TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG SWLY WINDS COMBINE.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IT IS QUITE LIKELY SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR DDC AND GCK AND GUSTS COULD REACH 20-25
KTS AT TIMES BETWEEN 18-00Z. -
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RETURN
TUESDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT SW KS, GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH, SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WILL ENSURE THAT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE AT/NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT EACH OF THESE DAYS, AS SUCH NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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