218
FXUS63 KDDC 171759
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
90S BY SATURDAY, ALONG WITH LIGHTER THAN AVERAGE WINDS.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO WARM AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
HIGHS FRIDAY AT DODGE CITY COULD REACH NEAR THE RECORD VALUE
OF 91, BUT WILL PROBABLY FALL JUST SHORT. BY SATURDAY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
90S, WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE. THE RECORD HIGH IN DODGE CITY IS 94
DEGREES AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN.
HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR REACHING
RECORD HIGHS AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONGER, PRE-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE SURGE. THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 26C ALONG THE 100TH MERIDIAN, WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ASSUMING COMPLETE DAYTIME
MIXING, AND EVEN WARMER IF THERE IS A SUPERADIABTIC LAYER NEAR
THE GROUND. THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL
ENCOURAGE GROUND HEATING AND STEEP NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS A VERY WARM PLUME
OF AIR IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE
MORNING. READINGS SHOULD START OUT VERY WARM IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 AT SUNRISE (EXACT READINGS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS AND
AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT OUTGOING RADIATION). THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS. IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FASTER THEN ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WOULD EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S OR COOLER. HOWEVER, A SLOWER SOLUTION
WOULD MEAN HOT READINGS IN PLACES LIKE MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AROUND MEDICINE LODGE
COULD REACH 90 AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY NOON BEFORE FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S GIVEN THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS AT 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PRESSURE AND
THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND IF CORRECT
COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY MID MORNING SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS COLDER SOLUTION WOULD MEAN
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE WIND MAKING
IT FEEL RATHER CHILLY. THE COOL-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY, EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE ONLY 5 TO 10% CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
(.01" OR GREATER)PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND THIS DRY
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR EVEN LONGER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RETURN
TUESDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20%. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT SW KS, GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH, SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WILL ENSURE THAT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE AT/NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT EACH OF THESE DAYS, AS SUCH NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...
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