461
FXUS63 KDDC 182214
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- DRY FROPA AND COOLER BY SUNDAY
- WARMING UP ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE LONG AND SHORT OF THIS FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH VALUES IN THE 40S.
FOR THURSDAY, THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EVEN WITH THE WARMTH, LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER. LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. THE SAME
WEATHER FORECAST IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO PAINT A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW NO QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH VALUES PEAKING
IN THE 90S. NBM HAS 90+% PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 90F
TO START THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AS ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW A DRY
FROPA SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DROP WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. LOWS HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING MAY HAVE FREEZING VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
BEYOND SUNDAY, HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH MAY END UP ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, AS
A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A BUMP UP IN WIND
SPEED AT LBL AND GCK WILL BE LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING
THURSDAY AS A SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OCCURS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY
THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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