026
FXUS63 KDDC 190940
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS AND RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTING
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD TO
RECORDS BEING MET OR EXCEEDING IS LOOKING PROBABLE BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN NBM FORECAST MEAN AND PROBABILITIES. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES ARE HIGHER RANGES 60 TO NEAR 100% FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE ARE EVEN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (15-40%)
OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NEARING OR
EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO THREATEN
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH MARCH TEMPERATURES, HIGHLIGHTING THE RARITY
OF THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED, NBM POPS ARE STILL NEGLIGIBLE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE THE HEAT AND DRYNESS WILL
BE IN PLACE, WIND FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN,
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL LEVEL OF FIRE
WEATHER RISK. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS. WHILE THIS FORECAST WILL BE
LESS THAN RED FLAG CRITERIA, KNOWING THE NBM'S TYPICAL LOW BIAS
ON WINDS AND OTHER GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND
SCENARIOS LIKE THE ENS-CONTROL AND NAM IS SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL RED FLAG CRITERIA. SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SATURDAY NOW FEATURES AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COORDINATION ON ANY
POTENTIAL HEADLINES WILL BE MADE IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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