798
FXUS63 KDDC 200425
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL LEAD TO
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
SATURDAY AT DODGE CITY IS 94. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE
UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY IN CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES ON THE
LOWER TERRAIN AS AIR HAS FARTHER TO DOWNSLOPE THERE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SHOVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S (NORTH) TO NEAR 70 (SOUTH) REACHED BEFORE NOON.
BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION SETTING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT STRONG
NORTH WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE
NBM GIVES 45-50 MPH GUSTS; AND THIS IS WHAT WE FULLY EXPECT
GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS. DESPITE THE COOLER
AIR ARRIVING, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY MORNING, WITH 32 TO 38 DEGREE READINGS COMMON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS, AND
POSSIBLY COOLER, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK (10% OR LESS).
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A DRY FORECAST WITH NOT EVEN A
TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-063>066-075>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BENNETT
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