875
FXUS63 KDDC 200930
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT, NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAT RELIEF
SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
STALLED RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST STILL
HAS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING THREATENED OR EXCEEDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE RECORD
HIGH FOR DODGE CITY IS 94, AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FORECAST OF
96. OF NOTE, THAT FORECAST IS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE ALL TIME
MARCH RECORD HIGH OF 98. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
AROUND 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME OF OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. WHILE THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS
CERTAINLY EXTRAORDINARY FOR THE AREA THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR,
EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK MAP SHOWS ONLY A CATEGORY 1-MINOR RISK OF
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS. HEAT AT THIS LEVEL WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A NEAR CRITICAL TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAD BEEN EXPANDED WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST.
INTO SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN DESPITE THE COLD FRONT WITH
MOSTLY 70S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AND PERHAPS STILL REACHING LOW
80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. NBM MEAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THE LOW WIND BIAS, THOSE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TOO LOW AND MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN, WITH 80S
RETURNING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS PERSISTENT
PATTERN, NBM POP CHANCES STILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE (<10%) FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-075>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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