484
FXUS63 KDDC 201759
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 80S.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER WILL SHOVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S (NORTH) TO NEAR 70 (SOUTH) REACHED BEFORE NOON.
BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION SETTING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT STRONG
NORTH WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE
NBM GIVES 45-50 MPH GUSTS; AND THIS IS WHAT WE FULLY EXPECT
GIVEN THE STRONG 850MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS. DESPITE THE COOLER
AIR ARRIVING, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY MORNING, WITH 32 TO 38 DEGREE READINGS COMMON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS, AND
POSSIBLY COOLER, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGH AT DODGE CITY IS 94 AND THERE IS
A CHANCE THIS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
REACH THE UPPER 90S IN CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD START OUT VERY MILD IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM STILL GIVES
45 MPH NORTHERLY GUSTS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION DURING MID TO
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S AT SCOTT CITY AND LOWER 70S AT MEDICINE
LODGE. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
MORE LIKELY. THESE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE
TROUGHING AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
MONDAY, WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THEN
WARM TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY. VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S AGAIN.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK AS A JET STREAK PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD RESULT
IN 90S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY; BUT A FASTER PASSAGE WOULD MEAN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK (10% OR LESS).
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN LIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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