831
FXUS63 KDDC 202137
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 80S.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGH AT DODGE CITY IS 94 AND THERE IS
A CHANCE THIS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
REACH THE UPPER 90S IN CLARK AND COMANCHE COUNTIES AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD START OUT VERY MILD IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM STILL GIVES
45 MPH NORTHERLY GUSTS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION DURING MID TO
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S AT SCOTT CITY AND LOWER 70S AT MEDICINE
LODGE. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
MORE LIKELY. THESE READINGS ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY JUST ENOUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE
TROUGHING AND WARMER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
MONDAY, WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THEN
WARM TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY. VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES EVEN MORE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S AGAIN.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK AS A JET STREAK PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD RESULT
IN 90S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY; BUT A FASTER PASSAGE WOULD MEAN
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK (10% OR LESS).
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MARCH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE HOT AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WHICH MEANS PROLONGED
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY,
INCREASING IN SPEED TO 14 TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED FOR ABOUT A 3 TO
5 HOUR PERIOD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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